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This article is part of our&nbsp;<em>The Way We See It – The 2024 Election in Perspective</em>&nbsp;series. Leading up to the November presidential and congressional elections, we will offer our thoughts and insights – not only on the political developments but also how the politics will shape the policy development in Congress. To get this bi-weekly communication directly to your inbox, subscribe to our Federal Policy updates&nbsp;<a href="https://e.bakerlaw.com/s/734eec79eb992ef4a0b212f8eef4ef62bd15c658" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">here</a>.

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Lawmakers return to Capitol Hill on September 9 from their summer recess with multiple issues on their plates – everything from legislation setting online safety standards for kids to key Pentagon policies. But Congress faces only one must-do deadline in September: passing a budget to avoid a government shutdown.

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Fiscal 2025 begins on October 1, and the House and Senate are nowhere near ready to finalize the 12 individual appropriations bills that fund the discretionary side of the government’s budget.

Because of internal political divisions among House Republicans, the GOP has struggled this summer to pass appropriations measures – votes on seven of the spending bills have been either delayed or resulted in defeat. In the Senate, the Appropriations Committee approved 11 spending bills, but none has reached the floor for a vote.

Despite the lack of legislative progress, it’s not likely the government will shut down on October 1. That would be politically calamitous for Republicans, who are battling to cling to their narrow House majority.

Instead, Congress is likely to approve a stopgap budget called a continuing resolution, which would extend current-year funding levels into the new fiscal year.

There is some question about how long a continuing resolution would last. Some conservatives argue it should run through the winter to allow final fiscal 2025 spending decisions to be made by a theoretical second Trump administration. But counting on certain November election outcomes is risky. A more likely scenario is that a continuing resolution would last until December, giving lawmakers flexibility to react to election results during a lame-duck session.

So September will see a lot of preelection partisan rhetoric on Capitol Hill, but the only legislation of consequence to pass will likely be the stopgap budget to temporarily avoid a government shutdown.

Congress’ Thin Preelection Agenda

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